We’re Not In China Anymore
Monday Market Recap
Highlights
The S&P 500 P/E Ratio (indicator for over/undervalue) hits highest level since 2002 at 19.
Presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg has now spent over $450M towards his campaign. He sits third in the polls behind Bernie Sanders and VP Joe Biden.
Markets dip 3% as coronavirus cases spread outside of China.
There are 60 Million people currently under quarantine in China and over 75,000 confirmed cases. Unfortunately it doesn’t stop there. The coronavirus is now spreading outside of China to Italy, Iran, Japan and 28 other countries. Italy has quarantined 50,000 people alone. The virus has had an effect on US based businesses with supply chains in China as well. Apple, Proctor and Gamble, and Royal Caribbean are all expected to miss revenue estimates as a direct result.
The selloff on Monday February 24, 2020 where major indices declined more than 3% is not only an indicator of an underestimation of the virus, but an indicator that the economic impact for the first quarter is more significant than previously thought. Wall Street consensus has an underperform rating for earning results set to post in April.
The forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 hit 19 which was the highest level since 2002. With bond yields now at all time lows at 1.36% it is not an ideal environment for investors to find yield or return even with the rush into safe haven assets. While the virus has an impact on this selloff, we were long overdue for a small correction such as this.
What I’m Reading - WSJ - A New Way for Stock Traders to Rebalance: Meditation
I found this article and its effects fascinating.
While meditation can be a great vehicle, the ultimate destination is actually emotional control, particularly as it relates to money. We think of ourselves as rational creatures, but we know what happens to ourselves when emotions become involved (See Thinking Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman).
While correlation to better performance has yet to be seen, there is no doubt that taking the time to think before acting yields better results in almost every area.
What I’m Watching – Rich Kleiman & David Falk On The Evolution of Sport
If you don’t know who David Falk is, I am sure you know who his biggest client was: Michael Jordan.
David Falk is largely responsible for the creation of the Jordan Brand with Nike, implementing guaranteed contracts, and creating the blueprint in marketing professional athletes. Here he speaks with Rich Kleiman, agent and business partner to Kevin Durant, to speak on the evolution of the sports business and the modern day athlete.
What I’m Listening To – The Origins Podcast – Gail Collins
The Origins Podcast features in-depth conversations with some of the most interesting people in the world about the issues that impact all of us in the 21st century. Gail Collins was the first woman to hold the position of Editorial Page Editor for the New York Times from 2001-2007. She is the author of five books inclding When Everything Changed: The Amazing Journey of American Women from 1960 To The Present.
This podcast is a bit more discussion versus interview based which is quite refreshing in a one on one podcast format.
Quick Take
Morgan Stanley just purchased E*Trade for $13B in an all stock offering. I believe this is a bit overpriced, but overall a huge win for Morgan. Here’s what I would expect to see as a result of the deal:
Read my take on the acquisition here